I don't know if the last bear has been converted yet but a new high in the S & P 500 probably shifted a few more holdouts into the bullish camp.  It is not clear that a major correction is imminent but the risk-reward ratio here looks unfavorable:

Earnings:
Earnings results continue to be flat to down as they are reported.  The gap between last twelve month results and future twelve month expectations is now more than 27% and it continues to grow.  This indicator continues to suggest 0% exposure this week.
Twelve month forward earnings are still trending higher as analysts obviously think things will improve as the year goes along. 
This indicator is still positive at this point with 100% exposure.
2013 estimates are my third indicator and they have been pretty flat recently.  They are still in an uptrend, though. 
This indicator continues to call for 100% exposure. 
Total exposure from  the earnings factor is 67%, same as last week.

Sentiment:
Rydex leveraged fund investors got "all in" last week and are now extremely bullish. 
Exposure from this indicator goes to -10%, down from 5% last week.
Small option buyers got a bit more bullish last week and are now back to a neutral status.
Exposure decreases to 50% from 65% last week.
NAAIM managers continued to be very optimistic  but they have gotten just a bit less so.  Still bullish but not as extreme as last week.
Exposure increases to 5% this week, up from -10% last week.
When one of my sentiment factors is maximum bearish and the other two are bearish or neutral, I use 0% as my sentiment exposure factor.

Valuation:
Percentage of stock prices represented by net current assets remained the same last week so
exposure continues at 20%, same as last week.
Comparison of stock earnings yield to ten year  treasury yield remained the same last week.
Exposure remains at 50%, same as last week.
Total valuation exposure is 35%, same as last week.

To combine these three factors, I multiply them together and then take the cube root.  This week, that number is 0%, down from 36% last week.

Technicals:
My comparison of yields on treasury bonds compared to lower quality corporates remained positive last week. 
I add 10% to account for this factor.
New highs - new lows on the Nasdaq are still positive.
I add 20% to account for this factor.
Total technical adjustments this week are +30%, same as last week.

After adjustments, total exposure for the week is 30% or, after rounding, 25% compared to 75% last
week. 

Another week and another foreign bank meltdown but no one is concerned about the impact on the economy of the US.  The market gyrates but, as long as earnings are perceived to be increasing this year, the bulls remain in control.
 
Earnings:
Earnings results continue to be flat to down as they are reported.  The gap between last twelve month results and future twelve month expectations is now more than 27% and it continues to grow.  This indicator continues to suggest 0% exposure this week.
Twelve month forward earnings are still trending higher as analysts obviously think things will improve as the year goes along.  
This indicator is still positive at this point with 100% exposure.
2013 estimates are my third indicator and they were decreased just marginally again last
week.  They are still in an uptrend, though. 
This indicator continues to call for 100% exposure. 
Total exposure from  the earnings factor is 67%, same as last week.
 
Sentiment:
Rydex leveraged fund investors maintained their bullish posture last week.  The trend, though, is still not in extreme territory.  
Exposure from this indicator stays at 5%, same as last week.
Small option buyers got a bit more bullish last week but are still on the bearish side of neutral.  
Exposure decreases to 65% from 80% last week.
NAAIM managers continued to be very optimistic  and my indicator remains in extreme negative territory.
Exposure remains at -10% this week, the maximum bearish level.
Total sentiment exposure is 20% this week, down from 25% last week.
  
Valuation:
Percentage of stock prices represented by net current assets remained the same last week so
exposure continues at 20%, same as last week.
Comparison of stock earnings yield to ten year  treasury yield increased last week as interest rates declined. 
Exposure increases to 50%, up from 30% last week.
Total valuation exposure is 35%, up from 25% last week.

To combine these three factors, I multiply them together and then take the cube root.  This week, that number is 36%, up from 35% last week.
 
Technicals:
My comparison of yields on treasury bonds compared to lower quality corporates remained positive last week.  I add 10% to account for this factor.
New highs - new lows on the Nasdaq are still positive.
I add 20% to account for this factor.
Total technical adjustments this week are +30%, same as last week.

After adjustments, total exposure for the week is 66% or, after rounding, 75% compared to 75% last week. 

 Virtually all the small investors and speculators that I follow are wildly bullish now but the option traders are stubbornly staying neutral or even slighly bearish.  The expectation of a correction is also almost universal so something has to give.  It will ultimately depend on earnings and that picture looks more and more like estimates have to come down.
  
Earnings:
Earnings results continue to be flat to down as they are reported.  The gap between last twelve month results and future twelve month expectations now more than 27% and it continues to grow.  This indicator continues to suggest 0% exposure this week.
Twelve month forward earnings are still trending higher but declined just marginally again last week.  This indicator is still positive at this point with 100% exposure.
2013 estimates are my third indicator and they were decreased just marginally last week.  They
are still in an uptrend, though. 
This indicator continues to call for 100% exposure. 
Total exposure from  the earnings factor is 67%, same as last week.

Sentiment: 
Rydex leveraged fund investors maintained their bullish posture last week and that optimism hit record levels last Tuesday.  The trend, though, is still not in extreme territory.  
Exposure from this indicator stays at 5%, same as last week.
Small option buyers continued to exhibit some concern as referenced above.  They are now just marginally bearish.
Exposure increases to 80%, up from 65% last week.
NAAIM managers continued to be very optimistic  and my indicator remains in extreme negative territory.
Exposure remains at -10% this week, the maximum bearish level.
Total sentiment exposure is 25% this week, up from 20% last week.

Valuation:
Percentage of stock prices represented by net current assets remained the same last week so 
exposure continues at 20%, same as last week. 
Comparison of stock earnings yield to ten year  treasury yield remained the same last week. 
Exposure remains at 30%, same as last week.
Total valuation exposure is 25%, same as last week.

To combine these three factors, I multiply them together and then take the cube root.  This week, that number is 35%, up from 32% last week.
  
Technicals:
My comparison of yields on treasury bonds compared to lower quality corporates remained positive last week.
I add 10% to account for this factor.
New highs - new lows on the Nasdaq are still positive.
I add 20% to account for this factor.
Total technical adjustments this week are +30%, same as last week.

After adjustments, total exposure for the week is 65% or, after rounding, 75% compared to 50% last week.

It certainly could be a blow-off but my sentiment indicators are not uniformly bearish.  My model calls for a continuing exposure to stocks until it becomes more obvious that earnings are turning down:


Earnings:
Earnings results continue to be flat as they are reported.  The gap between last twelve month results and future twelve month expectations is still almost 27% and it continues to grow.  This indicator continues to suggest 0% exposure this week.
Twelve month forward earnings are still trending higher but declined just marginally again last week.  This indicator is still positive at this point with 100% exposure.
2013 estimates are my third indicator and they were decreased just marginally last week.  They are still in an uptrend, though. 
This indicator continues to call for 100% exposure.  
Total exposure from  the earnings factor is 67%, same as last week.

Sentiment:
Rydex leveraged fund investors maintained their bullish posture last week, but they are not in extreme territory. 
Exposure from this indicator stays at 5%, same as last week.
Small option buyers continued to exhibit some concern but they became a little more bullish. Exposure remains at 65%, same as last week.
NAAIM managers continued to be very optimistic  and my indicator remains in extreme negative territory.
Exposure remains at -10% this week, the maximum bearish level.
Total sentiment exposure is 20% this week, same as last week.
 
Valuation:
Percentage of stock prices represented by net current assets remained the same last week so
exposure continues at 20%, same as last week.
Comparison of stock earnings yield to ten year  treasury yield declined last week as interest rates jumped up to 2.05%. 
Exposure decreases to 30%, down from 50% last week.
Total valuation exposure is 25%, down from 35% last week.

To combine these three factors, I multiply them together and then take the cube root.  This week, that number is 32%, down from 36% last week.
 
Technicals:
My comparison of yields on treasury bonds compared to lower quality corporates remained positive last week.
I add 10% to account for this factor.
New highs - new lows on the Nasdaq are still positive.
I add 20% to account for this factor.
Total technical adjustments this week are +30%, same as last week.

After adjustments, total exposure for the week is 62% or, after rounding, 50% compared to 75% last week.

Increased volatility has improved my indicators a little as some investors get ready for a perceived correction.  We have an improving situation but only if you feel comfortable with the earnings outlook: 
  
Earnings:
Earnings results for the last twelve months have now been essentially flat for 15 months.  People like Larry Kudlow keep saying that the earnings picture is improving but that observation only pertains to expectations - not actual results.  The gap between last twelve month results and future twelve month expectations is still almost 27% and it continues to grow.  This indicator continues to suggest 0% exposure this week.
Twelve month forward earnings are still trending higher but declined just marginally last week.  This indicator is still positive at this point with 100% exposure.
2013 estimates are my third indicator and they are being increased as are 2014 estimates.  Given the supposed economic problems caused by the sequester, I don't know where these optimistic analysts are coming from.
This indicator, though, continues to call for 100% exposure. 
Total exposure from  the earnings factor is 67%, same as last week.
  
Sentiment:
Rydex leveraged fund investors backed off their very bullish posture last week.  The indicator is still bearish but no longer extremely so.  
Exposure from this indicator increases to 5%, up from -10% last week.
Small option buyers continued to do a little more put buying last week, indicating their growing concern.
Exposure remains at 65%, same as last week.
NAAIM managers continued to be very optimistic  and my indicator remains in extreme negative territory.
Exposure remains at -10% this week, the maximum bearish level.
Total sentiment exposure is 20% this week, up from 15% last week.
  
Valuation:
Percentage of stock prices represented by net current assets remained the same last week so
exposure continues at 20%, same as last week.
Comparison of stock earnings yield to ten year  treasury yield improved last week. 
Exposure increases to 50%, up from 30% last week.
Total valuation exposure is 35%, up from 25% last week.

To combine these three factors, I multiply them together and then take the cube root.  This week, that number is 36%, up from 29% last week.

Technicals:
My comparison of yields on treasury bonds compared to lower quality corporates remained positive last week.
I add 10% to account for this factor.
New highs - new lows on the Nasdaq are still positive.
I add 20% to account for this factor.
Total technical adjustments this week are +30%, same as last week.
  
After adjustments, total exposure for the week is 66% or, after
rounding, 75% compared to 50% last week.