Wall Street Model
  • Welcome
  • Model Fundamentals
  • Blog
  • Stock Screen
  • Market Timer
  • Contact Me

Graph Update

4/26/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
As promised earlier, I am updating and posting my latest model graph from 4/22/2016.  Earnings jumped substantially last week and that was surprising given the generally slow economy.  However, when one quarter is over then analysts can add on a quarter to their estimates for one year out.  It is, of course, possible that earnings estimates will be reduced going forward but it is only speculation at this time.  For now, my model is calling for a 30% exposure to equities.
0 Comments

Surprise!

4/23/2016

0 Comments

 
I'm up in the Texas panhandle getting blown away by the spring winds so I don't have a full update right now. However, I've looked at my indicators and see that there was a huge increase in earnings expectations for my adjusted S & P 500 average less commodity companies last week.  The percentage of companies expected to report up earnings in the next quarter also increased.  Obviously, the market has been in the process of discounting this good news over the past few weeks.  On the negative side, valuation has gotten worse and is now rated as neutral-bearish.  My model has gone back to a positive outlook but still only a 30% exposure at this point.  I'll post a full update in a few days. 
0 Comments

More Of The Same

4/17/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
Earnings expectations continue to drift lower, yet the market moves higher.  The market is usually right so maybe earnings will stabilize here after the first quarter and begin to move higher but I'm not willing to speculate on that outcome so my model continues to call for a zero market exposure.  If valuation were better or sentiment indicated panic, I would be inclined to participate but that is certainly not the case right now.  The risk/reward ratio looks very unfavorable here and I'm happy to wait this situation out awhile longer.  I'm looking at adding a technical factor to my model that would tend to move with the market but even that indicator is just neutral at present.
0 Comments

Still Comfortably Hedged

4/10/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
Earnings expectations continue to decline slowly but it is too early to say for sure if this is merely a pause in growth or something more serious.  Given the current world economy, I suspect things are going to get worse.  First quarter earnings will begin to be reported this week and it will be important to listen to projections for clues as to the future.  My other indicators, valuation and sentiment, are both neutral and there is no reason to expect positive influences from either one.  I am maintaining a hedged portfolio and have done relatively well this year because my stock picks have been profitable.  This has been a difficult market environment because the average stock continues to perform poorly compared to the major averages.
0 Comments

Interest Rates vs Earnings

4/3/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
Market action has been frustrating because investors apparently believe delays in rate increases are more important than slowly eroding earnings.  I've made a couple of changes to my model this week in order to deal with this situation.  First, I have expanded what I consider to be neutral earnings results to take into account the type of slow decline in expectations we have been seeing recently.  While certainly not a positive, drifting expectations can be just neutral as long as things don't really collapse.  Secondly, I have expanded the universe of stocks I look at to determine what percentage are expecting up earnings this quarter.  That metric is slightly positive.  So earnings indicators are now neutral because S & P earnings less commodity companies are modestly negative.  Since valuation and sentiment remain neutral this week, my model has gone to a zero exposure level.  I am still fully hedged. 
0 Comments
    Picture
    ​

    With my wife on Aruba
    December 2019

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.