My model is becoming more positive just as market analysts have become more concerned about the earnings picture.  No evidence of problems yet but they certainly could surface later:

Earnings:
Estimates for 2013/2014 continued a modest improvement and remain in a positive trend.
Looking at earnings 52 weeks ahead, estimates are still in an upward trend as optimistic analysts stay
very positive.
With both earnings indicators positive, my maximum earnings exposure is 100%.
Looking at the gap between last twelve month earnings and future 52 week projections, while the gap
is larger than I would like to see, it is still slowly declining.
There is no adjustment for the earnings gap so the earnings factor exposure is 100%, the same as last week.
  
Sentiment: 
Odd lot investors stayed pretty optimistic but not at extreme levels.  
Exposure remains at 5% this week, same as last week.
Small option buyers continued to become more bullish last week.  This is a very negative situation and needs to be watched closely. 
Exposure declines to 5%,  down from 20% last week.
NAAIM managers seemed to panic and raised lots of cash last week.
Exposure increases to 50% this week, up from 20% last week.
The sentiment factor increases to 20% this week, up from 15% last week.

Valuation:
Percentage of stock prices represented by net current assets rebounded last week back to previous levels.  
Exposure increases back to 20%, up from 0% last week.
Comparison of stock earnings yield to ten year treasury yield was unchanged last week.
Exposure remains at 30%, same as last week.
Total valuation exposure is 25%, up from 15% last week.

To combine these three factors, I multiply them together and then take the cube root.
This week, that number is 37%, up from 28% last week.

Technicals:
My comparison of yields on treasury bonds compared to lower quality corporates
remained positive last week.  I add 10% to account for this factor.
New highs - new lows on the Nasdaq are still positive.  I add 20% to account for
this factor.
Total technical adjustments this week are +30%, same as last week.

After adjustments, total exposure for the week is 67% or, after rounding, 75%.
This level of exposure does not exceed the current earnings cap and is up from 50% last
week.

 Just a hint of concern as we reached the end of a losing week.  However most investors are looking at this decline as a buying opportunity.  More fear would be nice.

Earnings:
Estimates for 2013/2014 continued a modest improvement and remain in a positive trend.
Looking at earnings 52 weeks ahead, estimates are still in an upward trend as optimistic analysts stay very positive.
With both earnings indicators positive, my maximum earnings exposure is 100%.
Looking at the gap between last twelve month earnings and future 52 week projections, while the gap
is larger than I would like to see, it is still slowly declining.
There is no adjustment for the earnings gap so the earnings factor exposure is 100%, the same as last week.

Sentiment: 
Odd lot investors got a bit less optimistic last week.  This indicator is no longer extreme but it is still quite bearish. 
Exposure increases to 5% this week, up from -10% last week.
Small option buyers actually have become more bullish over the last two weeks as the decline progressed.  This is a very negative situation and needs to be watched closely. 
Exposure declines to 20%,  down from 35% last week.
NAAIM managers raised a little cash last week as they watched their holdings decline in price.
Exposure increases to 20% this week, up from 5% last week.
The sentiment factor increases to 15% this week, up from 0% last week. 

Valuation:
Percentage of stock prices represented by net current assets declined last week for the first time in many weeks.  Exposure is 0%, down from 20% last week. 
Comparison of stock earnings yield to ten year treasury yield was unchanged last week.
Exposure remains at 30%, same as last week.
Total valuation exposure is 15%, down from 25% last week.

To combine these three factors, I multiply them together and then take the cube root.
This week, that number is 28%, down from 0% last week.

Technicals:
My comparison of yields on treasury bonds compared to lower quality corporates
remained positive last week.  I add 10% to account for this factor.
New highs - new lows on the Nasdaq are still positive.  I add 20% to account for
this factor.
Total technical adjustments this week are +30%, same as last week.

After adjustments, total exposure for the week is 58% or, after rounding, 50%.
This level of exposure does not exceed the current earnings cap and is up from 25% last week.

Too many parties and too many holes of golf to publish a full outlook this weekend.  However, there is no change in my model's exposure to the stock market.  It is still 25%.  Sentiment factors actually worsened in spite of the market decline.  Earnings continue to be OK.

The market looked pretty strong last week but advancers outnumbered decliners by a whopping 16 issues on the NYSE.  There are many reasons for extra caution now.  Sentiment on the part of small investors and speculators is extremely bullish
Earnings:
Estimates for 2013/2014 continued a modest improvement and remain in a positive trend.
Looking at earnings 52 weeks ahead, estimates are still in an upward trend as optimistic analysts stay very positive.
With both earnings indicators positive, my maximum earnings exposure is 100%.
Looking at the gap between last twelve month earnings and future 52 week projections, while the gap
is larger than I would like to see, it is declining now.
There is no adjustment for the earnings gap so the earnings factor exposure is 100%, the same as last week.

Sentiment: 
Odd lot investors have become more optimistic in view of the positive market and have
reduced shorting substantially.  They are now at an extreme position.
Exposure declines to -10% this week, down from 5% last week.
Small option buyers remain in a neutral position, with call buying and put buying about at
normal levels.
Exposure remains at 50%,  same as last week.
NAAIM managers have become scared about missing the rally and continued their bullish posture last week. 
Exposure remains at 5% this week, same as last week.
When one of my sentiment indicators is maximum bearish and the other two are neutral or negative, I set the sentiment factor at 0% exposure. 
 

Valuation:
Percentage of stock prices represented by net current assets remained the same last week so
exposure continues at 20%, same as last week.
Comparison of stock earnings yield to ten year treasury yield remained depressed last week in view of the sharp increase in interest rates.
Exposure remains at 20%, same as last week.
Total valuation exposure is 20%, same as last week.

To combine these three factors, I multiply them together and then take the cube root.
This week, that number is 0%, down from 34% last week.

Technicals:
My comparison of yields on treasury bonds compared to lower quality corporates
remained positive last week.  I add 10% to account for this factor.
New highs - new lows on the Nasdaq are still positive.  I add 20% to account for
this factor.
Total technical adjustments this week are +30%, same as last week.

After adjustments, total exposure for the week is 30% or, after rounding, 25%.
This level of exposure does not exceed the current earnings cap and is down from last week.