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December 07th, 2020

12/7/2020

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Earnings Estimate Trend:  Still NEUTRAL.
Valuation:  Every segment of the stock market is grossly overvalued.  Remains BEARISH
Declining Bullish Enthusiasm:  No indication that bullish enthusiasm is weakening.  Remains BULLISH
Sentiment:  Small investors and speculators are big buyers.  This is BEARISH
Current Stock Exposure:  Still holding 50%CASH
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November 23rd, 2020

11/23/2020

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Estimated Earnings Trend:  Earnings estimates are in a slow growth trend but still below previous peaks.  NEUTRAL
Valuation:  Remains BEARISH
Dying Bullish Enthusiasm:  Market is hitting new highs - BULLISH
Sentiment:  Still a very complacent environment - BEARISH
Current Stock Exposure:  Still holding to a very cautious allocation:  50% CASH
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November 15th, 2020

11/15/2020

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Estimated Earnings Trend:  It looks like estimated earnings one year out are now trending higher.  They are still below previous highs so are now classified as NEUTRAL
Valuation:  Increased inflation expectations and stock price increases mean valuation is still BEARISH
Declining Bullish Enthusiasm:  New highs keep this indicator BULLISH
Sentiment:  Got worse last week and is now BEARISH/NEUTRAL
Current Stock Exposure:  Based on terrible valuation, I am holding at 50% CASH
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November 09th, 2020

11/9/2020

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Earnings Estimate Trend:  Has improved but earnings are still well below previous peaks.  NEUTRAL
Valuation:  Last week's advance made valuation worse.  It remains BEARISH
Declining Bullish Enthusiasm:  Still no evidence of this.  Still BULLISH
Sentiment:  Remains NEUTRAL
Current Stock Exposure:  Holding 50% CASH
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November 01st, 2020

11/1/2020

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Earnings Estimate Trend:  Some further recovery last week but still BEARISH
Valuation:  Has improved but remains BEARISH
Declining Bullish Enthusiasm:  Still BULLISH
Sentiment:  Remains NEUTRAL
Current Stock Exposure:  Still holding 50% CASH
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October 26th, 2020

10/26/2020

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Earnings Estimate Trend:  Not an impressive move up last week.  Trend is still BEARISH
Valuation:  Remains poor and VERY BEARISH
Dying Bullish Enthusiasm:  Everything still OK for now.  BULLISH
Sentiment:  Is now NEUTRAL
Current Stock Exposure:  Holding 50% CASH
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October 18th, 2020

10/18/2020

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Earnings Estimate Trend:  No improvement and still BEARISH
Valuation:  Worsened last week and is now VERY BEARISH
Declining Bullish Enthusiasm:  Not in evidence yet but the S&P needs a new high soon.  BULLISH
Sentiment:  Complacency has become a problem again - BEARISH
Current Stock Exposure:  Holding at 50% CASH and scared with even that exposure
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October 12th, 2020

10/12/2020

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Earnings Estimate Trend:  Remains BEARISH
Valuation:  Could be worse, but not much.  Still BEARISH
Declining bullish enthusiasm:  No evidence of that.  A new indicator that is BULLISH
Sentiment:  Remains NEUTRAL
Current Stock Exposure:  I view the current market as a mania where valuation doesn't matter.  My stocks are doing great but I'm being hurt by my attempt to time the market.  Rather than hedge, I am currently going to a 50% cash position and will stay there as long as valuation is terrible.  I may not fully participate in the mania but I should at least benefit somewhat as long as it goes on.
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September 27th, 2020

9/27/2020

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Earnings Estimate Trend:  Still down and still BEARISH
Valuation:  Some improvement but remains BEARISH
New Highs Minus New Lows On The NASDAQ:  Still NEUTRAL
Sentiment:  Remains NEUTRAL
Current Stock Exposure:  Holding at 100% HEDGED

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September 20th, 2020

9/20/2020

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Earnings Growth Trend:  Still down and still BEARISH
Valuation:  Some improvement last week because of lower expected inflation but still BEARISH
New Highs Minus New Lows on the NASDAQ:  Remains NEUTRAL
Sentiment:  Still NEUTRAL
Current Stock Exposure:  Maintaining a 100% HEDGED position
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    With my wife on Aruba
    December 2019

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