 Earnings Estimate Trend: Still NEUTRAL.
Valuation: Every segment of the stock market is grossly overvalued. Remains BEARISH Declining Bullish Enthusiasm: No indication that bullish enthusiasm is weakening. Remains BULLISH Sentiment: Small investors and speculators are big buyers. This is BEARISH Current Stock Exposure: Still holding 50%CASH
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 Estimated Earnings Trend: Earnings estimates are in a slow growth trend but still below previous peaks. NEUTRAL
Valuation: Remains BEARISH Dying Bullish Enthusiasm: Market is hitting new highs - BULLISH Sentiment: Still a very complacent environment - BEARISH Current Stock Exposure: Still holding to a very cautious allocation: 50% CASH  Estimated Earnings Trend: It looks like estimated earnings one year out are now trending higher. They are still below previous highs so are now classified as NEUTRAL
Valuation: Increased inflation expectations and stock price increases mean valuation is still BEARISH Declining Bullish Enthusiasm: New highs keep this indicator BULLISH Sentiment: Got worse last week and is now BEARISH/NEUTRAL Current Stock Exposure: Based on terrible valuation, I am holding at 50% CASH  Earnings Estimate Trend: Has improved but earnings are still well below previous peaks. NEUTRAL
Valuation: Last week's advance made valuation worse. It remains BEARISH Declining Bullish Enthusiasm: Still no evidence of this. Still BULLISH Sentiment: Remains NEUTRAL Current Stock Exposure: Holding 50% CASH  Earnings Estimate Trend: Some further recovery last week but still BEARISH
Valuation: Has improved but remains BEARISH Declining Bullish Enthusiasm: Still BULLISH Sentiment: Remains NEUTRAL Current Stock Exposure: Still holding 50% CASH  Earnings Estimate Trend: Not an impressive move up last week. Trend is still BEARISH
Valuation: Remains poor and VERY BEARISH Dying Bullish Enthusiasm: Everything still OK for now. BULLISH Sentiment: Is now NEUTRAL Current Stock Exposure: Holding 50% CASH  Earnings Estimate Trend: No improvement and still BEARISH
Valuation: Worsened last week and is now VERY BEARISH Declining Bullish Enthusiasm: Not in evidence yet but the S&P needs a new high soon. BULLISH Sentiment: Complacency has become a problem again - BEARISH Current Stock Exposure: Holding at 50% CASH and scared with even that exposure  Earnings Estimate Trend: Remains BEARISH
Valuation: Could be worse, but not much. Still BEARISH Declining bullish enthusiasm: No evidence of that. A new indicator that is BULLISH Sentiment: Remains NEUTRAL Current Stock Exposure: I view the current market as a mania where valuation doesn't matter. My stocks are doing great but I'm being hurt by my attempt to time the market. Rather than hedge, I am currently going to a 50% cash position and will stay there as long as valuation is terrible. I may not fully participate in the mania but I should at least benefit somewhat as long as it goes on.  Earnings Estimate Trend: Still down and still BEARISH
Valuation: Some improvement but remains BEARISH New Highs Minus New Lows On The NASDAQ: Still NEUTRAL Sentiment: Remains NEUTRAL Current Stock Exposure: Holding at 100% HEDGED  Earnings Growth Trend: Still down and still BEARISH
Valuation: Some improvement last week because of lower expected inflation but still BEARISH New Highs Minus New Lows on the NASDAQ: Remains NEUTRAL Sentiment: Still NEUTRAL Current Stock Exposure: Maintaining a 100% HEDGED position |
With my wife on Aruba
December 2019 Categories |
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