Happy New Year!

We did indeed get a bit of a rally last week although, I must say, my stock holdings were not leading factors.  I was thrown a curve ball by my data provider when they updated their timing of updating earnings estimates last week.  The data will now be updated more quickly and should be more useful.  However, the configuration of expected earnings for my modified S & P earnings has changed.  Looking at the numbers now I see worse performance over the last several weeks but a sharp upside reversal in the past two weeks.  So analysts are either increasing estimates for 2016 or the calendar is pushing earnings considerations out another three months.  This is not to suggest we are looking at a positive bullish earnings factor.  It is just not as bearish as it was and earnings expectations are now classified as neutral.  The other shift toward a more bullish outlook came in the sentiment indicators as small investors and speculators became somewhat more bearish in their activity.  So, on balance, my model is taking a slightly more constructive view and suggests an exposure of 30% at this time.  Hopefully, the year-end rally will continue for at least a few more days.