Lots Of Complacency

In order to be able to put more money into my screening system I have added 10 stocks to the portfolio size, making a total of thirty.  That has changed the history on my model somewhat, making some historical periods better and some worse.  Overall, though, there hasn't been much change in the CAGR.  Drawdown is quite a bit better, however.  There are no substantive changes in my model this week.  Earnings estimates are increasing slowly, valuation is poor and the unemployment rate is still higher than it was a few months ago.  I am maintaining a fully hedged position, waiting for better opportunities.  Looking at sentiment, it is apparent that most investors have become complacent about the future and are very reluctant to sell stocks without having a better place to put their money.  That will probably continue to work as long as the economy grows, but all bets are off if a recession materializes.  I think there is a strong possibility that economic weakness could become much more evident going forward.