It really bothers me that I have to give so much weight to what happens in Washington but that has been the way our society has moved for my whole life. Now we have the prospect of another failed health care vote that will, in turn, call into question the ability of our elected representatives to do anything in general and tax reduction specifically. My valuation statistics assume a substantial reduction in corporate tax rates and my model would call for a fully hedged position if tax rate reduction does not happen. All other items of importance are unchanged again this week with the exception of sentiment which has become fully negative. Sentiment does not do a good job of pinpointing tops in the market but it certainly adds more risk to the equation. Some hedging makes sense until the Washington circus looks clearer but my model is not capable of factoring politics into its quantitative base.
I am trying to get a handle on how many people are interested in my model and its stock picks. I want to ask a favor - if you are interested in continuing to follow this site whether you are actually using it in your portfolio or not, please click on the "like" button below this post on the left. Thanks very much!
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With my wife on Aruba
December 2019 Categories |