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More Uncertainty - Or Less?

3/26/2017

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After the self-destruction of the Obamacare repeal, and given the fact that the market has priced in a tax cut, it is hard to know what to expect.  The priority has apparently shifted to tax reform but it has to be regarded as very questionable as to whether that tax reform will actually get done and what it might contain.  The market weakness last week has improved valuation metrics but not much.  Earnings and unemployment still look OK.  Sentiment is also improving but is just neutral now.  My model is continues to find 20 good ideas to buy so it is fully invested but there could be some volatility ahead as the Republicans regroup and give guidance on their next move.
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    Richard Moore, CFA

    With my wife in Hawaii
    ​May 2016

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