Earnings remain on the verge of turning outright negative while everything else is looking anywhere from neutral to awful. It seems like lots of investors are hoping for earnings improvements in the last half of 2015 and they may be right. However, if that outlook deteriorates, I think there will be a rush to the exits as people recognize that a zero return in a money market fund is better than a negative one in stocks.
This year's earnings estimate trend (excluding commodity companies)- Neutral
Earnings estimates 52 weeks out - Negative
Gap between future 52 week estimate and latest 12 month results - Neutral
Total earnings exposure and maximum total exposure under these conditions 25%
Equity put/call ratio +65%
Small investor put/call ratio +35%
NAAIM Manager cash position -10%
Average sentiment exposure this week +30%
Long term valuation 0%
Stock prices represented by net current assets 0%
Stock earnings yield compared to ten year treasury yield +50%
Average valuation exposure this week +17%
Total exposure from above three factors +23%.
Comparison of Treasury Bond yields compared to lower quality corporate bond yields -10%
New highs minus new lows on the NASDAQ +20%
Trend indicator for new highs minus new lows -25%
Total technical adjustments -15%
Total stock exposure for the week +8%
Rounded to the nearest 25th percentile 0%.
Richard Moore, CFA
With my wife in Hawaii