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Valuation Now Unattractive

6/5/2016

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The S & P 500 was unchanged last week.  However, that fact obscures some interesting divergences.  First, the average stock, as measured by the Value Line Geometric Average, is still down around 9% from its high about one year ago.  Secondly, the average stock has been doing better than the S & P 500 in the very recent past.  This has caused valuation for the median stock to increase to the point where it is now negative. It could certainly go even higher but I question why that would happen given the current economic outlook.  It is true that earnings estimates for the next year are still trending modestly higher so that will be a prop for the market as long as it persists.  Sentiment remains just neutral.  With valuation so poor, my model has moved out of the market entirely.  I will go to a hedged position for the time being.
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