As I mentioned last week, earnings expectations for both this year and next continue to deteriorate. At this point, we have essentially lost one year of expected earnings growth. That didn't stop the market from rallying last week, though. I must be missing something because my model is negative or neutral in every factor it considers. Investors are either confidant that the earnings problems are just temporary or they are willing to play the "greater fool" game and buy just because the market is going up. It is, of course, possible that the market advances to new highs but my model suggests a rather healthy short position at the current time.
This year's earnings estimate trend - Negative
Earnings estimates 52 weeks out - Negative
Gap between future 52 week estimate and latest 12 month results - Neutral
Total earnings exposure and maximum total exposure under these conditions 0%
Equity put/call ratio +65%
Small investor put/call ratio +35%
NAAIM Manager cash position -10%
Average sentiment exposure this week +30%
Long term valuation 0%
Stock prices represented by net current assets +20%
Stock earnings yeild compared to ten year treasury yield +50%
Average valuation exposure this week +23%
Total exposure from above three factors -73% or 73% short.
Comparison of Treasury Bond yields compared to lower quality corporate bond yields (10%)
New highs minus new lows on the NASDAQ +20%
Trend indicator for new highs minus new lows 0%
Total technical adjustments +10%
Total stock exposure for the week -63%
Rounded to the nearest 25th percentile -75% or 75% short.
Richard Moore, CFA
With my wife in Hawaii